The positive evolution of the Romanian economy led to a decrease in non-performing loans (NPL) below 15%, as opposed to 21%, as it was at the height of the crisis. However, there are still some areas, such as construction and real estate, with rates which, while down below 30%, from 40% in December 2015, still remain high. These sectors were indeed the most exposed to the crisis, and the pressure of new loans can lead to the emergence of new problems, amid easing credit conditions imposed by banks, especially for mortgages.

Another interesting development in the banking sector was the restructuring of the loan portfolios and thus, during the first nine months of this year, the banks have accepted the conversion of 9,200 loans from various currencies into the national currency, the aggregate value of which was of one billion lei. These decisions of bankers to change the currency of the loan come amid adoption of the Law for conversion of loans in francs at historical rates. At the same time, the banks have refinanced and restructured loans worth lei 5.6 billion, over 85% of this amount being consumer loans.

Although the banking sector’s profitability has been increasing in 2016, an ING report shows that ROBOR 3 months has already exceeded 0.8%, from 0.68% historical low reached in September and October of this year. This development is a prerequisite for the increase of the variable interest rates for loans granted in lei. The outlook for the coming years shows an accelerated growth of ROBOR, the ING analysts anticipating that in 2017 ROBOR 3 months could climb to 2.5%, and in 2018 could even reach 3%.

Dr. ec. Adrian CRIVII, FICS, REV, MAA
Director general DARIAN DRS SA